PROBABILITY OF MULTIPLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING YOU MORE THAN 50% OF THE TIME

gjaggers

BY THE WAY - THIS IS DEADLY SERIOUS AND NO JOKE

To qualify for PIP, the DWP must assess that any condition must affect you for more than 50% of the time or more than 3 out of 7 days.

A Judge has ruled that the DWP must consider the probability of separate conditions COMBINING to affect you for more than 50% of the time or 4 or more days a week.

Here is the maths I have just sent to DWP today.

(2)  REGARDING LEGALITY – FAILED TO FOLLOW YOUR OWN GUIDELINES RELATING TO THE PROBABILITY OF MY WIFE SUFFERING FROM THE EFFECTS OF MULTIPLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE THAN 3 DAYS A WEEK – 50% of the time.

Your decision to award my wife ‘0’ points after the first assessment and then again after the mandatory reconsideration is contrary to your regulations and, therefore, incorrect and unlawful.

Your regulations clearly state that a claimants disabilities must affect her for more than 50% of the time before they can receive PIP.

In order to do this, you must apply the mathematical rules of probability in relation to the probability of  multiple health conditions/disabilities affecting claimants in any one week (7 days) for more than 50% of the time.

A judge recently made the following calculations based on a claimant suffering from two health conditions/disabilities affecting them 3 out of the 7 days of the week, both, therefore, not qualifying for PIP individually.
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The claimant who had both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (“COPD”) and rheumatoid arthritis.

The first tier tribunal found that the claimant had 3 bad days a week for COPD, and 2 to 3 bad days a week, depending on the weather, for rheumatoid arthritis. Each condition affected the claimant’s ability to carry out some of the activities in the PIP test, such as preparing food or dressing.

The tribunal decided that the claimant’s conditions did not cause him to satisfy any point scoring descriptors for over 50% of the time, as required by regulation 7, so he was not eligible for PIP.

Probability theory

The upper tribunal judge, however, held that the tribunal had failed to find out if the effect of one condition was enough to cause problems or whether there was only an issue when both conditions applied at the same time.

If the effects of either condition on its own was enough to allow points to be scored, it would still be necessary to work out how many days a week on average, the claimant was affected by one or both conditions. If 50% or less then no award of PIP could be made.

Relying on a submission by the DWP, the tribunal judge went on to set out in great detail how to calculate the probability of the two conditions occurring for more than 50% of the time.

The judge argued:

If we say that the rheumatoid arthritis occurs 3 times a week then the probability that regulation 7 is satisfied is worked out as follows:

Probability(A or = Probability(A) + Probability(B) – Probability(A and

The probability of event A (arthritis) occurring, 3/7, is added to the probability of event B (COPD) occurring. 3/7 + 3/7 =6/7.

However, this probability (6/7) also includes the times on which the COPD and arthritis both occur. This must be subtracted. It is double counting.

The probability of the COPD and arthritis both occurring is 3/7 x 3/7 = 9/49.

We need to subtract 9/49 from 6/7. To do this we convert 6/7 into 42/49 (by multiplying by 7). We can then do the simple sum 42/49 - 9/49 = 33/49. This is the probability of an operative condition being present on a given day.

33/49 can otherwise be understood as 4.71/7, if you were looking at this on a weekly basis (as we have  here).

Therefore the descriptor is satisfied for more than 50% of the days.

This finding was accepted and is a precedent to any other cases challenging the effects of multiple health conditions/disabilities.

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Now, expanding this ruling to apply to my wife's several health conditions/disabilities

 

The probability that at least one condition is suffered on a day is 1 minus the probability that no conditions are suffered. That latter is the product of the probabilities of not suffering each condition.

 

Using the example probabilities of 3/7 for suffering the two conditions, we get 1 - (4/7)*(4/7) = 1 - 16/49 = 33/49.

 

Extending this for the conditions my wife suffers from: PTSD, CONFUSION & ANXIETY, COPD (Shortness of Breath), FYBROMYALGIA, DYSEXECUTIVE SYNDROME (Brain Damage), SEIZURES, ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROME (Unstable Angina), IBS (Irritable Bowel Syndrome), BRAIN TUMOUR (Meningioma), LOSS OF BALANCE, ASTHMA.

That totals 10 health conditions/disabilities.  Being generous and saying that there might some overlapping in the mental health/[psychological problems/disabilities, I will knock that down to a total of 7 health conditions/disabilities and, as you have argued (though we vehemently disagree), each one individually affects Angela for less than 50% of the time, we will say that they affect her 3 days out of 7.

Therefore, mathematically, each condition affects her 3/7, 3/7, 3/7, 3/7, 3/7, 3/7 and 3/7.

The probability of any occurrence is 1 - (4/7)*(4/7)*(4/7)*(4/7)*(4/7)*(4/7)*(4/7)  = 1 – 16,384/823,543 = 0.98.

Therefore, the probability of Angela suffering from her multiple health conditions/disabilities in any one week, is 98% of the time.

Please re-adjust your PIP assessment to feature in the probability of Angela suffering from her multiple multiple health conditions/disabilities for 98% of the time.

NOTE:
If you suffer from mulltiple health conditions, you should factor in this argument at any stage in your claim, appeal or new claim.

Smile (it is sorta funny - but very real!)

gjaggers

[Deleted User]

Wow this is so helpful!  Thankyou